In October, I pointed out that Ann Selzer, Iowa’s Queen of Polling, was so unnaturally good at polling elections that she actually had a better track record of predicting elections than Nate Silver. I therefore introduced the Selzer+Silver model, which aims to improve the FiveThirtyEight model by (basically) treating Selzer’s polls as the absolute truth and using them to anchor the FiveThirtyEight model results. At the time, my analysis was entirely retrospective and therefore could have been caused by cherry-picking results....
